Aucas 2–1 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

Aucas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Cuenca

L. Cano 87'

J. Ontaneda 78'

L. Gustavino 34'

11/30/2025

Liga Pro · Placement Group - 7Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Aucas45%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cuenca28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AucasExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.00

Aucas

1.35

Deportivo Cuenca

1.00

Aucas creates 35% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

1.61

creates per match

0.94

1.06

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Aucas

1.61

Deportivo Cuenca

0.94

allows per match

Aucas

1.06

Deportivo Cuenca

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Aucas or draw

72%

Aucas or Deportivo Cuenca

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

55%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+

21%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals

74%

Aucas 2+ goals

39%

Aucas 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

63%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)

62%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 31 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.61 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.94 + Aucas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aucas scores more

45%

level

27%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

28%

Aucas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Ontaneda

Aucas · D

7.9

Match Events

33'

Estalin Segura

34'

L. Gustavino↳ C. Luna Tobar

53'

55'

55'

55'

60'

69'

E. Pepinos← R. Jaramilo

70'

Kliver Moreno

70'

Kliver Moreno

74'

E. Guevara← A. Rodriguez

76'

S. Porozo← E. Segura

78'

J. Ontaneda

86'

M. Piedra← C. Luna Tobar

86'

D. Noboa← B. Nazareno

86'

L. Mancinelli← L. Estupinan

87'

L. Cano↳ B. Montenegro

88'

89'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AucasDeportivo

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots7

5Corners3

10Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots7

6On Target2

5Off Target4

1Blocked1

8Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

431Total Passes284

357Accurate Passes199

83%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls10

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Aucas vs Deportivo Cuenca

Aucas beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 in Liga Pro on November 30, 2025.

Goals: L. Gustavino (34'), J. Ontaneda (78'), L. Cano (87').

Aucas controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda in Quito.

Aucas vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Aucas vs Deportivo Cuenca