Deportivo Cuenca 3–3 Aucas: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Aucas

L. Mancinelli 89'

P. Magnín 65', 63' (pen)

J. Medina 53', 12'

R. Jaramillo 49'

4/13/2024

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 8Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca41%

×Draw27%

Aucas32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchAucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.16

Deportivo Cuenca

1.35

Aucas

1.16

Deportivo Cuenca creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.19

1.13

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.33

Aucas

1.19

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.13

Aucas

1.37

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.20scores less

Aucas+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Aucas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

68%

Deportivo Cuenca or Aucas

73%

Draw or Aucas

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

19%

Aucas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

15%

Aucas 1+ goals

69%

Aucas 2+ goals

32%

Aucas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

56%

Aucas (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.33 + Aucas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Aucas attack 1.19 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

41%

level

27%

Aucas scores more

32%

Deportivo Cuenca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Medina

Aucas · F

8.9

Match Events

12'

J. Medina↳ H. Batalla

23'

L. Arroyo← R. Becerra

28'

Guillermo Fratta

49'

R. Jaramillo↳ M. Carcelén

53'

J. Medina↳ L. Cano

56'

N. Dávila← D. Luna

56'

P. Magnín← W. Chalá

60'

Esteban DavilaPenalty confirmed

61'

Juan Gonzalez

63'

P. MagnínPenalty

65'

P. Magnín↳ L. Mancinelli

71'

C. Cuero← J. Mina

71'

A. Mina← M. Carcelén

83'

A. Tobar← É. Vega

86'

V. Branda← B. Corozo

89'

L. Mancinelli↳ R. Melo

90'

Lucas Mancinelli

90+4'

Jhon Ontaneda

90+2'

A. García← J. González

90+2'

J. Blanco← R. Jaramillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAucas

Overview

41%Possession59%

16Total Shots16

4Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots16

5On Target5

10Off Target8

1Blocked3

9Inside Box11

7Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

287Total Passes439

220Accurate Passes364

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Deportivo Cuenca vs Aucas

Deportivo Cuenca and Aucas drew 3-3 in Liga Pro on April 13, 2024.

Goals: J. Medina (12', 53'), R. Jaramillo (49'), P. Magnín (63' pen, 65'), L. Mancinelli (89').

Aucas controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro in Cuenca.

Deportivo Cuenca vs Aucas — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Cuenca vs Aucas