Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Aucas: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Aucas

L. Mancinelli 81' (pen)

F. Fydriszewski 43' (pen)

R. Ordóñez 5'

7/30/2022

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 4Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca42%

×Draw27%

Aucas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchAucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.14

Deportivo Cuenca

1.37

Aucas

1.14

Deportivo Cuenca creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.37

creates per match

1.19

1.09

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.37

Aucas

1.19

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.09

Aucas

1.37

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.15scores less

Aucas+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Aucas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

69%

Deportivo Cuenca or Aucas

73%

Draw or Aucas

58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

20%

Aucas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

16%

Aucas 1+ goals

68%

Aucas 2+ goals

32%

Aucas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

57%

Aucas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.37 + Aucas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Aucas attack 1.19 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

42%

level

27%

Aucas scores more

31%

Deportivo Cuenca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

R. Ordóñez↳ V. Figueroa

42'

Hamilton Piedra

43'

Rodrigo Melo

43'

F. FydriszewskiPenalty

56'

F. Mera← M. Montaño

57'

L. Mancinelli← E. Mera

61'

Roberto Ordóñez

64'

Mateo Zambrano

66'

S. López← J. Quiñónez

66'

J. Tévez← R. Ordóñez

67'

C. Fara← P. Perlaza

68'

J. Vernaza← M. Zambrano

68'

J. Almeida← V. Branda

72'

Caín Fara

76'

M. Balda← B. Rivera

80'

Ariel Garcia

81'

L. MancinelliPenalty

84'

L. Romero← A. Garcia

84'

E. Caicedo← V. Figueroa

90+7'

Manu Balda

90+3'

Sergio López

Shots

Statistics

DeportivoAucas

Overview

14Total Shots4

16Corners2

4Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots4

7On Target2

7Off Target2

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

4Fouls9

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Deportivo Cuenca vs Aucas

Aucas beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 in Liga Pro on July 30, 2022.

Goals: R. Ordóñez (5'), F. Fydriszewski (43' pen), L. Mancinelli (81' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro in Cuenca.

Deportivo Cuenca vs Aucas — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Cuenca vs Aucas