Deportes Tolima 3–1 Alianza Valledupar

Deportes Tolima

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Alianza Valledupar

A. Castro 79'

L. Miranda 45'

G. Lencina 30' (pen)

M. Martinez 14'

2/8/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 3Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportes Tolima49%

×Draw31%

Alianza Valledupar20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TolimaExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.64

Deportes Tolima

1.18

Alianza Valledupar

0.64

Deportes Tolima creates 84% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.31

creates per match

0.68

0.60

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Deportes Tolima

1.31

Alianza Valledupar

0.68

allows per match

Deportes Tolima

0.60

Alianza Valledupar

1.04

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Deportes Tolima-0.45scores less

Alianza Valledupar+0.07on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw

80%

Deportes Tolima or Alianza Valledupar

69%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

51%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

22%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

69%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

33%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

12%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

47%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

14%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

71%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.60 · 7 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.31 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.68 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more

49%

level

31%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

20%

Deportes Tolima at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80

B. Rovira

Deportes Tolima · M

7.7

Match Events

14'

M. Martinez

30'

G. LencinaPenalty

45'

L. Miranda

46'

A. Castro← Y. D. Hurtado Torres

46'

R. R. Colpa Bolano← D. A. Mendoza Benitez

46'

J. Munoz← W. Fernandez

55'

57'

60'

66'

67'

A. Arroyo← G. Ramirez

73'

F. Pardo← J. Munoz

73'

R. Manjarres← L. Perez

78'

J. Hernandez← K. Perez

78'

C. Trujillo← J. Nieto

78'

C. Vergara← M. Martinez

79'

A. Castro

84'

A. Parra Osorio← G. Lencina

86'

R. R. Colpa Bolano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesAlianza

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots14

5Corners3

8Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target6

6Off Target5

2Blocked3

9Inside Box6

3Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

357Total Passes359

297Accurate Passes300

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0