Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Deportes Tolima

Alianza Valledupar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportes Tolima

J. Fuentes 2'

7/22/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 166+ matches

Alianza Valledupar36%

×Draw28%

Deportes Tolima36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.17

Alianza Valledupar

1.16

Deportes Tolima

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 166 home / 196 away

1.31

creates per match

1.22

1.13

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

Deportes Tolima

1.22

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.13

Deportes Tolima

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

64%

Alianza Valledupar or Deportes Tolima

72%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

64%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

15%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

69%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

32%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

11%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

69%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

33%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

50%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

36%

level

28%

Deportes Tolima scores more

36%

Alianza Valledupar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

A. Angulo

Deportes Tolima · D

7.9

Match Events

2'

J. Fuentes

38'

Kevin Pérez

46'

C. Arrieta← S. Velasquez

46'

J. P. Torres Patino← J. Fuentes

46'

M. Gonzalez← E. Valencia

58'

S. A. Aponza Cantonil← E. Torres

58'

F. Mosquera← J. Castillo

58'

M. Gil← F. Pardo

61'

C. Lucumi← A. Del Valle

62'

C. Trujillo← K. Perez

74'

Fabián Mosquera

77'

C. Villegas← J. Munoz

80'

Cristopher Fiermarín

82'

J. Quinones← J. Nieto

89'

Carlos Gonzalez

90+5'

Juan Torres

90+1'

Jader Quinones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaDeportes

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots10

0.99Expected Goals (xG)0.79

7Corners1

8Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots10

2On Target7

6Off Target2

8Blocked1

7Inside Box2

9Outside Box8

Passing

60%Possession40%

461Total Passes330

391Accurate Passes255

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

7Offsides1