Alianza Valledupar 0–2 Deportes Tolima

Alianza Valledupar

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Deportes Tolima

C. Trujillo 77'

Y. Rosales 21'

3/29/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 14Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Alianza Valledupar37%

×Draw29%

Deportes Tolima34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.09

Alianza Valledupar

1.16

Deportes Tolima

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 64 away

1.24

creates per match

1.20

0.98

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.24

Deportes Tolima

1.20

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

0.98

Deportes Tolima

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

66%

Alianza Valledupar or Deportes Tolima

71%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

63%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

16%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

69%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

32%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

11%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

66%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

30%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

52%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.08 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.24 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Deportes Tolima attack 1.20 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

37%

level

29%

Deportes Tolima scores more

34%

Alianza Valledupar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

E. Sosa

Deportes Tolima · M

7.7

Match Events

21'

26'

36'

37'

45+5'

45+7'

Juan Pablo NietoCard reviewed

46'

M. Torres← R. Manjarrés

46'

F. Flórez← J. Figueroa

51'

57'

60'

61'

62'

C. Esparragoza← E. Sosa

69'

J. Parra← M. Gil

70'

B. Gil← C. Cortés

73'

Freddy Flórez

75'

Cristian Trujillo

77'

C. Trujillo↳ K. Pérez

80'

S. Orozco← J. Castillo

87'

N. Reyes← R. Blanco

89'

F. Boné← Á. Castro

89'

F. Mosquera← J. Nieto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaDeportes

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots13

5Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots13

3On Target8

6Off Target3

4Blocked2

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

392Total Passes405

316Accurate Passes342

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards8

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Deportes Tolima

Deportes Tolima beat Alianza Valledupar 2-0 in Primera A on March 29, 2024.

Goals: Y. Rosales (21'), C. Trujillo (77').

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.

Alianza Valledupar vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Deportes Tolima