Deportes Limache 2–3 Coquimbo Unido: Result & Stats

Deportes Limache

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Coquimbo Unido

G. Sosa 54'

V. Alvarez 10'

N. Johansen 62'

A. Camargo 49'

A. Parot 39' (OG)

5/31/2026

Primera División · Round 14Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportes Limache46%

×Draw25%

Coquimbo Unido28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchCoquimbo Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.15

Deportes Limache

1.55

Coquimbo Unido

1.15

Deportes Limache creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

2.01

creates per match

1.33

0.97

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Deportes Limache

2.01

Coquimbo Unido

1.33

allows per match

Deportes Limache

0.97

Coquimbo Unido

1.10

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Deportes Limache-0.31scores less

Coquimbo Unido-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Coquimbo Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

72%

Deportes Limache or Coquimbo Unido

75%

Draw or Coquimbo Unido

54%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

24%

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

79%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

46%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

20%

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

68%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

32%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

62%

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.97 · 10 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 2.01 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.33 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

46%

level

25%

Coquimbo Unido scores more

28%

Deportes Limache at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

V. Alvarez

Deportes Limache · F

8.0

Match Events

10'

V. Alvarez↳ M. Arturia

20'

Yerko GonzálezCard upgrade

21'

Yerko González

32'

Pablo Rodríguez

39'

A. ParotOwn goal

41'

Benjamín Gazzolo

46'

G. Sosa← M. Arturia

46'

C. Morales← V. Alvarez

49'

A. Camargo↳ J. Cornejo

54'

G. Sosa↳ Jean David

59'

B. Chandia← P. Rodriguez

62'

N. Johansen↳ J. Cornejo

63'

Salvador Cordero

66'

D. Glaby← A. E. Azocar Machuca

78'

J. Montecinos← M. Llanten

82'

M. A. Mundaca Barraza← A. Camargo

82'

L. Riveros← C. Zavala

88'

88'

89'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesCoquimbo

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots14

4Corners5

7Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots14

5On Target3

5Off Target6

3Blocked5

8Inside Box9

5Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

286Total Passes470

201Accurate Passes391

70%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls7

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

2Offsides3