Coquimbo Unido 2–3 Deportes Limache: Result & Stats

Coquimbo Unido

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Deportes Limache

N. Johansen 85' (pen)

C. Waterman 69'

D. Castro 90'

N. Da Silva 57'

D. Portilla 28'

7/13/2025

Copa Chile · Quarter-finalsEstadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Coquimbo Unido32%

×Draw25%

Deportes Limache43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coquimbo UnidoExpected goals in this matchDeportes Limache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.49

Coquimbo Unido

1.25

Deportes Limache

1.49

Deportes Limache creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

1.32

creates per match

2.45

0.53

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.32

Deportes Limache

2.45

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido

0.53

Deportes Limache

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Deportes Limache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw

57%

Coquimbo Unido or Deportes Limache

75%

Draw or Deportes Limache

68%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

13%

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

71%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

36%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

13%

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

77%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

44%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

43%

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 2.45, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.32 + Deportes Limache defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportes Limache attack 2.45 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more

32%

level

25%

Deportes Limache scores more

43%

Deportes Limache at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

D. Portilla↳ L. Guerra

32'

37'

41'

45+4'

45+5'

46'

M. Mundaca← B. Chandía

46'

S. Cordero← A. Camargo

52'

M. A. Mundaca Barraza

56'

C. Waterman← A. Azócar

57'

N. Da Silva↳ N. Peñailillo

64'

C. Waterman

68'

Y. Zapata← L. Guerra

68'

M. Llantén← D. Portilla

68'

D. Castro← B. Silva

69'

C. Waterman↳ M. Fernández

72'

M. Fernandez

82'

L. Soza← F. Salinas

82'

N. Donadell← S. Galani

82'

M. Sandoval← C. Pinares

85'

N. JohansenPenalty

90+5'

D. Castro

90'

G. Paz← N. Peñailillo

90'

D. Castro↳ Y. Zapata

Coquimbo

Deportes

26

Peranic

23

Pacheco

18

A

▼

13

2

32

31

▼

Silva

24

⚽

▼

Portilla

9

⚽

Silva

34

▼

Pinares

10

A

▼

Guerra

13

Sánchez

17

▼

Salinas

16

Cornejo

7

▼

Galani

2

Cabrera

3

A

Fernández

11

▼

Azócar

8

▼

Camargo

9

⚽

Johansen

10

Palavecin

30

▼

Chandía

Manager: Esteban Eduardo González Herrera

46'▲M. Mundaca←▼B. Chandía

46'▲S. Cordero←▼A. Camargo

56'▲C. Waterman←▼A. Azócar

82'▲L. Soza←▼F. Salinas

82'▲N. Donadell←▼S. Galani

Coquimbo Unido substitutes

26Soza22Donadell18Waterman20Mundaca14Cordero5Zepeda4Hernández1Flores6Riquelme

Manager: Víctor Javier Rivero Faccioli

68'▲Y. Zapata←▼L. Guerra

68'▲M. Llantén←▼D. Portilla

68'▲D. Castro←▼B. Silva

82'▲M. Sandoval←▼C. Pinares

90'▲G. Paz←▼N. Peñailillo

Deportes Limache substitutes

3Paz5Sandoval7Zapata25Llantén19Castro4Torrealba35Poblete6Andía33Morales