Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Deportes Limache: Result & Stats

Coquimbo Unido

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportes Limache

N. Johansen 71'

C. Waterman 59' (pen)

D. Castro 23'

8/2/2025

Primera División · Round 18Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Coquimbo Unido50%

×Draw24%

Deportes Limache26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coquimbo UnidoExpected goals in this matchDeportes Limache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.18

Coquimbo Unido

1.71

Deportes Limache

1.18

Coquimbo Unido creates 45% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 23 away

1.37

creates per match

1.30

1.06

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.37

Deportes Limache

1.30

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.06

Deportes Limache

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Deportes Limache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw

74%

Coquimbo Unido or Deportes Limache

76%

Draw or Deportes Limache

50%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

27%

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

82%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

51%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

24%

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

69%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

33%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

65%

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.06 · 89 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.37 + Deportes Limache defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deportes Limache attack 1.30 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more

50%

level

24%

Deportes Limache scores more

26%

Coquimbo Unido at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

F. Romero

Deportes Limache · M

7.7

Match Events

9'

Yorman ZapataGoal cancelled

23'

D. Castro↳ F. Romero

29'

Juan Cornejo

31'

Juan CornejoCard reviewed

36'

César Pinares

45+4'

Manuel Fernández

45+9'

Dylan Portilla

45+9'

Dylan PortillaCard upgrade

46'

A. Camargo← S. Cordero

46'

N. Penailillo← Y. Zapata

46'

M. Llanten← F. Romero

51'

Nicolás Peñailillo

59'

N. Johansen← B. Chandia

59'

B. Silva← L. Guerra

59'

C. WatermanPenalty

67'

Daniel Castro

71'

N. Johansen

73'

Nicolás Johansen

73'

Nicolás JohansenGoal confirmed

75'

César Pinares

78'

Y. W. Andia Leon← G. Paz

83'

M. A. Mundaca Barraza← C. Zavala

84'

85'

87'

88'

89'

89'

N. Donadell← M. Palavecino

90+6'

Sebastián Galani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoquimboDeportes

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots4

2.97Expected Goals (xG)0.32

7Corners1

11Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots4

3On Target1

7Off Target0

3Blocked3

12Inside Box0

1Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

348Total Passes274

286Accurate Passes191

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls15

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards2

2Offsides1

Primera División: Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Deportes Limache

Coquimbo Unido beat Deportes Limache 2-1 in Primera División on August 2, 2025.

Goals: D. Castro (23'), C. Waterman (59' pen), N. Johansen (71').

Coquimbo Unido controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.

Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Deportes Limache