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Deportes Limache vs Barnechea — Primera B 2018

Deportes Limache
Deportes Limache
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Barnechea
Barnechea
6/3/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 15Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportes Limache41%
×Draw26%
Barnechea32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Limache
1.40
Barnechea
1.21

Deportes Limache creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 95 away

creates per match

Deportes Limache
1.28
Barnechea
1.09

allows per match

Deportes Limache
1.33
Barnechea
1.52

finishing

Deportes Limache+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw
68%
Deportes Limache or Barnechea
74%
Draw or Barnechea
59%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+
19%
Barnechea wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals
75%
Deportes Limache 2+ goals
41%
Deportes Limache 3+ goals
17%
Barnechea 1+ goals
70%
Barnechea 2+ goals
34%
Barnechea 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)
56%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 1.28 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Barnechea attack 1.09 + Deportes Limache defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportes Limache scores more
41%
level
26%
Barnechea scores more
32%

Deportes Limache at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Deportes Limache 2–2 Barnechea

Deportes Limache and Barnechea drew 2-2 in Primera B on June 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.