Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barnechea vs Deportes Limache — Copa Chile 2019

Barnechea
Barnechea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportes Limache
Deportes Limache
6/17/2024Copa ChileCopa Chile · Regional 8th finalsEstadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Barnechea20%
×Draw21%
Deportes Limache60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnechea
1.09
Deportes Limache
2.06

Deportes Limache creates 89% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Barnechea
1.00
Deportes Limache
2.45

allows per match

Barnechea
1.67
Deportes Limache
1.18

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par
Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

Deportes Limache →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw
40%
Barnechea or Deportes Limache
79%
Draw or Deportes Limache
80%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+
7%
Deportes Limache wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals
66%
Barnechea 2+ goals
30%
Barnechea 3+ goals
10%
Deportes Limache 1+ goals
87%
Deportes Limache 2+ goals
61%
Deportes Limache 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)
25%
Deportes Limache (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 2.45, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.00 + Deportes Limache defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Deportes Limache attack 2.45 + Barnechea defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Barnechea scores more
20%
level
21%
Deportes Limache scores more
60%

Deportes Limache at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barnechea vs Deportes Limache

Barnechea beat Deportes Limache 1-0 in Copa Chile on June 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.