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Barnechea vs Deportes Limache — Primera B 2018

Barnechea
Barnechea
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Deportes Limache
Deportes Limache
10/19/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 30Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barnechea37%
×Draw25%
Deportes Limache39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnechea
1.43
Deportes Limache
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 17 away

creates per match

Barnechea
1.50
Deportes Limache
1.76

allows per match

Barnechea
1.21
Deportes Limache
1.35

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par
Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

Deportes Limache →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw
61%
Barnechea or Deportes Limache
75%
Draw or Deportes Limache
63%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+
17%
Deportes Limache wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals
76%
Barnechea 2+ goals
42%
Barnechea 3+ goals
17%
Deportes Limache 1+ goals
77%
Deportes Limache 2+ goals
43%
Deportes Limache 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)
49%
Deportes Limache (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.50 + Deportes Limache defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Deportes Limache attack 1.76 + Barnechea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barnechea scores more
37%
level
25%
Deportes Limache scores more
39%

Deportes Limache at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Barnechea 6–0 Deportes Limache

Barnechea beat Deportes Limache 6-0 in Primera B on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea in Santiago de Chile.