Deportes Iquique 2–2 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

Deportes Iquique

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Colo Colo

A. Vidal 56' (OG)

E. Saborit 36'

A. Oroz 59'

J. Correa 53'

6/13/2025

Primera División · Round 8Estadio Tierra de Campeones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportes Iquique39%

×Draw26%

Colo Colo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes IquiqueExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.33

Deportes Iquique

1.42

Colo Colo

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.74

creates per match

1.08

1.57

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Deportes Iquique

1.74

Colo Colo

1.08

allows per match

Deportes Iquique

1.57

Colo Colo

1.09

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Deportes Iquique-0.45scores less

Colo Colo+0.22scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Iquique ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportes Iquique or draw

65%

Deportes Iquique or Colo Colo

74%

Draw or Colo Colo

61%

Winning margin

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+

18%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals

76%

Deportes Iquique 2+ goals

41%

Deportes Iquique 3+ goals

17%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

74%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

38%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)

53%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Iquique at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Iquique attack 1.74 + Colo Colo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Colo Colo attack 1.08 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportes Iquique scores more

39%

level

26%

Colo Colo scores more

35%

Deportes Iquique at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportes Iquique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

F. Marchant

Colo Colo · F

8.2

Match Events

23'

Óscar Opazo

35'

Matías Moya

36'

E. Saborit↳ E. Hoyos

46'

L. Casanova← E. Saborit

53'

Enzo Hoyos

53'

J. Correa↳ F. Marchant

56'

A. VidalOwn goal

59'

A. Oroz↳ F. Marchant

61'

D. Gutierrez← O. Opazo Lara

61'

E. Pavez← T. Alarcon

70'

V. Pizarro← A. Vidal

70'

C. Zavala← F. Marchant

74'

C. Gonzalez← E. Hoyos

74'

D. Orellana← M. Davila Carvajal

79'

Javier Parraguez← S. Pino

79'

S. Rodriguez← J. Correa

80'

Claudio Aquino

81'

A. Ramos← M. Moya

87'

Mauricio Isla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesColo

Overview

28%Possession72%

10Total Shots16

1.07Expected Goals (xG)1.96

6Corners6

9Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots16

1On Target3

9Off Target4

0Blocked9

5Inside Box10

5Outside Box6

Passing

28%Possession72%

211Total Passes580

150Accurate Passes517

71%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3