Deportes Iquique 0–0 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

Deportes Iquique

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colo Colo

2/7/2021

Primera División · Round 32Estadio Tierra de Campeones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Deportes Iquique42%

×Draw26%

Colo Colo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes IquiqueExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.24

Deportes Iquique

1.47

Colo Colo

1.24

Deportes Iquique creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.85

creates per match

0.98

1.50

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Deportes Iquique

1.85

Colo Colo

0.98

allows per match

Deportes Iquique

1.50

Colo Colo

1.09

-0.68scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Deportes Iquique-0.68scores less

Colo Colo+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Iquique ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportes Iquique or draw

68%

Deportes Iquique or Colo Colo

74%

Draw or Colo Colo

58%

Winning margin

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+

21%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals

77%

Deportes Iquique 2+ goals

43%

Deportes Iquique 3+ goals

18%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

71%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

35%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)

57%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Iquique at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Iquique attack 1.85 + Colo Colo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.47

Colo Colo attack 0.98 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportes Iquique scores more

42%

level

26%

Colo Colo scores more

32%

Deportes Iquique at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportes Iquique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Mauricio Zenteno

Deportes Iquique · D

7.9

Match Events

30'

I. Morales

33'

F. I. Saavedra Saavedra

46'

A. Ramos← G. Mainero

59'

M. Fernandez← L. Valencia Rossel

65'

D. Orellana

73'

F. I. Saavedra Saavedra← H. Salinas Flores

77'

G. Lorenzetti← S. Zuniga

77'

I. Morales← J. Parraguez

83'

C. Carmona← W. H. Alarcon Cepeda

83'

P. Solari← B. Vejar

90+4'

D. N. Fernandez C.← C. Huanca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesColo

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots7

4Corners4

15Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots7

3On Target3

4Off Target1

0Blocked3

5Inside Box5

2Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

300Total Passes242

191Accurate Passes137

64%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2