Deportes Iquique 0–3 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

Deportes Iquique

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Colo Colo

M. Bolados 82'

G. Paiva 72'

A. Vidal 59' (pen)

5/25/2024

Primera División · Round 14Estadio Tierra de Campeones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportes Iquique39%

×Draw26%

Colo Colo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes IquiqueExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.33

Deportes Iquique

1.42

Colo Colo

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.74

creates per match

1.08

1.57

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Deportes Iquique

1.74

Colo Colo

1.08

allows per match

Deportes Iquique

1.57

Colo Colo

1.09

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Deportes Iquique-0.45scores less

Colo Colo+0.22scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Iquique ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportes Iquique or draw

65%

Deportes Iquique or Colo Colo

74%

Draw or Colo Colo

61%

Winning margin

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+

18%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals

76%

Deportes Iquique 2+ goals

41%

Deportes Iquique 3+ goals

17%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

74%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

38%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)

53%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Iquique at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Iquique attack 1.74 + Colo Colo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Colo Colo attack 1.08 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportes Iquique scores more

39%

level

26%

Colo Colo scores more

35%

Deportes Iquique at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportes Iquique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Vidal

Colo Colo · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

César González

29'

Arturo VidalGoal cancelled

46'

J. Moya← L. Casanova

46'

E. Hoyos← D. Fernández

51'

Hans Salinas

59'

A. VidalPenalty

63'

R. De La Fuente← H. Salinas

63'

R. Farfán← Y. Andía

69'

V. Pizarro← L. Gil

69'

M. Bolados← C. Palacios

72'

G. Paiva

75'

D. Pizarro← G. Paiva

78'

L. Soto← A. Vidal

78'

M. Moya← G. Castellani

82'

M. Bolados↳ D. Pizarro

84'

C. González← Á. Ramos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesColo

Overview

36%Possession64%

6Total Shots14

2Corners8

11Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots14

2On Target7

3Off Target7

1Blocked0

6Inside Box13

0Outside Box1

Passing

36%Possession64%

304Total Passes540

225Accurate Passes466

74%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides2

Primera División: Deportes Iquique 0–3 Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat Deportes Iquique 3-0 in Primera División on May 25, 2024.

Goals: A. Vidal (59' pen), G. Paiva (72'), M. Bolados (82').

Colo Colo controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Iquique.

Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Deportes Iquique 0–3 Colo Colo