Dender 2–1 Charleroi: Result & Stats

Dender

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Charleroi

A. Scheidler 69'

R. Květ 54'

P. Guiagon 20'

4/22/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 5DENDER Football Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Dender32%

×Draw26%

Charleroi42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenderExpected goals in this matchCharleroi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.44

Dender

1.21

Charleroi

1.44

Charleroi creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 46 away

1.14

creates per match

1.30

1.57

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Dender

1.14

Charleroi

1.30

allows per match

Dender

1.57

Charleroi

1.29

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Dender-0.08on par

Charleroi-0.17scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dender ↓

Charleroi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dender or draw

58%

Dender or Charleroi

74%

Draw or Charleroi

68%

Winning margin

Dender wins by 2+

13%

Charleroi wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Dender 1+ goals

70%

Dender 2+ goals

34%

Dender 3+ goals

12%

Charleroi 1+ goals

76%

Charleroi 2+ goals

42%

Charleroi 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dender (draw refunded)

43%

Charleroi (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dender at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 33 matches

Charleroi away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.29 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dender attack 1.14 + Charleroi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Charleroi attack 1.30 + Dender defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dender scores more

32%

level

26%

Charleroi scores more

42%

Charleroi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

P. Guiagon

Charleroi · M

8.3

Match Events

20'

P. Guiagon↳ N. Štulić

46'

46'

54'

59'

62'

I. Mbenza← A. Bernier

62'

V. Dragsnes← M. Nzita

68'

Kobe Cools

69'

A. Scheidler↳ L. Hens

70'

Aurélien Scheidler

73'

B. Goncalves← J. Pupe

73'

J. Van Oudenhove← R. Květ

74'

Lennard Hens

75'

A. Flips← Y. Titraoui

76'

É. Camara← A. Zorgane

82'

J. Attah Kadiri← A. Scheidler

82'

R. Asante← J. Pétris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DenderCharleroi

Overview

40%Possession60%

7Total Shots27

0.77Expected Goals (xG)2.15

3Corners6

6Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots27

4On Target7

2Off Target15

1Blocked5

6Inside Box14

1Outside Box13

Passing

40%Possession60%

406Total Passes589

289Accurate Passes481

71%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

0.34Goals Prevented0.34

Discipline

6Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0