Charleroi 5–0 Dender: Result & Stats

Charleroi

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Dender

A. Bernier 82'

D. Heymans 71' (pen)

N. Štulić 44', 17'

A. Zorgane 8'

2/1/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Round 24Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Charleroi49%

×Draw24%

Dender27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharleroiExpected goals in this matchDender

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.19

Charleroi

1.71

Dender

1.19

Charleroi creates 44% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 32 away

1.51

creates per match

1.23

1.14

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Charleroi

1.51

Dender

1.23

allows per match

Charleroi

1.14

Dender

1.92

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Charleroi-0.21scores less

Dender-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi ↓

Dender →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Charleroi or draw

73%

Charleroi or Dender

76%

Draw or Dender

51%

Winning margin

Charleroi wins by 2+

27%

Dender wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Charleroi 1+ goals

82%

Charleroi 2+ goals

51%

Charleroi 3+ goals

24%

Dender 1+ goals

70%

Dender 2+ goals

33%

Dender 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Charleroi (draw refunded)

65%

Dender (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Dender away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.92 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi attack 1.51 + Dender defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Dender attack 1.23 + Charleroi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Charleroi scores more

49%

level

24%

Dender scores more

27%

Charleroi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

A. Zorgane

Charleroi · M

9.5

Match Events

8'

A. Zorgane↳ P. Guiagon

14'

Bryan Goncalves

17'

N. Štulić↳ P. Guiagon

34'

R. Oratmangoen← B. Goncalves

40'

Bruny Nsimba

40'

Bruny NsimbaCard upgrade

44'

N. Štulić

45+2'

Aurélien Scheidler

60'

D. Sylla← R. Květ

60'

L. Hens← K. Cools

60'

M. Viltard← D. Hrnčár

63'

Aiham Ousou

64'

R. Asante← P. Guiagon

64'

A. Bernier← I. Mbenza

64'

M. Nzita← V. Dragsnes

69'

Mardochee NzitaPenalty confirmed

71'

D. HeymansPenalty

72'

R. M'Barki← F. Ferraro

74'

É. Camara← Y. Titraoui

74'

M. Sow← Aiham Ousou

82'

A. Bernier↳ É. Camara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharleroiDender

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots3

2.84Expected Goals (xG)0.27

1Corners3

10Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots3

9On Target2

9Off Target1

0Blocked0

12Inside Box3

6Outside Box0

Passing

60%Possession40%

533Total Passes361

463Accurate Passes270

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

-0.79Goals Prevented-0.79

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards2

2Offsides1