Charleroi 4–1 Dender: Result & Stats

Charleroi

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dender

N. Štulić 90'

Ž. Rogelj 87'

D. Heymans 63'

A. Bernier 17'

R. Květ 69'

4/26/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 6Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Charleroi50%

×Draw24%

Dender26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharleroiExpected goals in this matchDender

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.19

Charleroi

1.73

Dender

1.19

Charleroi creates 45% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 33 away

1.53

creates per match

1.23

1.14

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Charleroi

1.53

Dender

1.23

allows per match

Charleroi

1.14

Dender

1.94

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Charleroi-0.17scores less

Dender-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi ↓

Dender →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Charleroi or draw

74%

Charleroi or Dender

76%

Draw or Dender

50%

Winning margin

Charleroi wins by 2+

27%

Dender wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Charleroi 1+ goals

82%

Charleroi 2+ goals

52%

Charleroi 3+ goals

25%

Dender 1+ goals

70%

Dender 2+ goals

33%

Dender 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Charleroi (draw refunded)

65%

Dender (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.14 · 45 matches

Dender away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi attack 1.53 + Dender defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dender attack 1.23 + Charleroi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Charleroi scores more

50%

level

24%

Dender scores more

26%

Charleroi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

D. Heymans

Charleroi · M

10.0

Match Events

14'

Adem Zorgane

16'

Gilles Ruyssen

17'

A. Bernier↳ D. Heymans

33'

Dembo Sylla

57'

J. Pupe← B. Goncalves

57'

N. Rôdes← L. Hens

58'

D. Hrnčár← F. Ferraro

63'

D. Heymans

67'

M. Berte← B. Nsimba

69'

R. Květ↳ D. Hrnčár

73'

É. Camara← Y. Titraoui

73'

R. Asante← A. Bernier

79'

V. Dragsnes← M. Nzita

79'

Ž. Rogelj← P. Guiagon

80'

J. Van Oudenhove← J. Pupe

87'

Ž. Rogelj

90+1'

C. Keita← J. Pétris

90'

N. Štulić↳ J. Pétris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharleroiDender

Overview

54%Possession46%

24Total Shots9

2.68Expected Goals (xG)1.22

9Corners3

10Fouls6

Shots

24Total Shots9

7On Target4

12Off Target4

5Blocked1

18Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

484Total Passes416

403Accurate Passes323

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.37Goals Prevented-0.37

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0