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Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag — Eerste Divisie 2018

Den Bosch
Den Bosch
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
R. Wolters 63'
N. Thomas 50'
J. Hawkins 49'
S. Sylla 25'
4/24/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 38De Vliert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Den Bosch35%
×Draw24%
ADO Den Haag42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Den Bosch
1.48
ADO Den Haag
1.64

ADO Den Haag creates 11% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 95 away

creates per match

Den Bosch
1.67
ADO Den Haag
1.77

allows per match

Den Bosch
1.50
ADO Den Haag
1.28

finishing

Den Bosch+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Den Bosch ↓

ADO Den Haag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Den Bosch or draw
58%
Den Bosch or ADO Den Haag
76%
Draw or ADO Den Haag
65%

Winning margin

Den Bosch wins by 2+
16%
ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Den Bosch 1+ goals
77%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
43%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
19%
ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
81%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
49%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Den Bosch (draw refunded)
46%
ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Den Bosch at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 149 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Den Bosch attack 1.67 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

ADO Den Haag attack 1.77 + Den Bosch defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Den Bosch scores more
35%
level
24%
ADO Den Haag scores more
42%

ADO Den Haag at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
E. SemedoDen BoschDen Bosch · F
8.0

Match Events

25'
S. Sylla↳ N. Thomas
46'
Z. el Bakkali← M. Laros
46'
R. Wolters← N. de Groot
49'
J. Hawkins
50'
N. Thomas↳ M. Kreekels
59'
D. van Mieghem← J. Hawkins
59'
B. Fiabema← N. Thomas
59'
F. de Bruin← J. Vlak
63'
R. Wolters↳ E. Semedo
73'
B. Millis← S. Karlsson Grach
73'
J. Brandt← M. Jimenez
83'
S. Bergtop← M. Kreekels
84'
D. Verbeek← I. Boumassaoudi

Possession

41%Den

Shots

12Den

Pass accuracy

49%Den

Statistics

DenADO
Overview
41%Possession59%
12Total Shots26
1.22Expected Goals (xG)3.79
3Corners8
8Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots26
6On Target12
1Off Target9
5Blocked5
10Inside Box17
2Outside Box9
Passing
41%Possession59%
360Total Passes506
299Accurate Passes439
83%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
8Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls11
3Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: Den Bosch 1–3 ADO Den Haag

ADO Den Haag beat Den Bosch 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on April 24, 2026.

Goals: S. Sylla (25'), J. Hawkins (49'), N. Thomas (50'), R. Wolters (63').

ADO Den Haag controlled possession (59%) and registered 26 shots to 12.

The match was played at De Vliert.