Den Bosch 2–0 ADO Den Haag: Result & Stats

Den Bosch

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ADO Den Haag

T. Knöll 46', 15'

9/13/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 6Stadion De Vliert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Den Bosch35%

×Draw24%

ADO Den Haag42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Den BoschExpected goals in this matchADO Den Haag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.64

Den Bosch

1.48

ADO Den Haag

1.64

ADO Den Haag creates 11% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 95 away

1.67

creates per match

1.77

1.50

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Den Bosch

1.67

ADO Den Haag

1.77

allows per match

Den Bosch

1.50

ADO Den Haag

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Den Bosch+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Den Bosch ↓

ADO Den Haag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Den Bosch or draw

58%

Den Bosch or ADO Den Haag

76%

Draw or ADO Den Haag

65%

Winning margin

Den Bosch wins by 2+

16%

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Den Bosch 1+ goals

77%

Den Bosch 2+ goals

43%

Den Bosch 3+ goals

19%

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

81%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

49%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Den Bosch (draw refunded)

46%

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Den Bosch at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 149 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Den Bosch attack 1.67 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

ADO Den Haag attack 1.77 + Den Bosch defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Den Bosch scores more

35%

level

24%

ADO Den Haag scores more

42%

ADO Den Haag at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Knöll

Den Bosch · M

8.9

Match Events

15'

T. Knöll

46'

S. Sylla← M. Hokke

46'

E. Mohammed← D. Lourens

46'

T. Knöll↳ B. Burgering

50'

Byron Burgering

53'

Juho Kilo

57'

F. de Bruin← S. van der Sloot

70'

T. Bijlsma← M. Bakker

74'

S. Esajas← J. Vlak

75'

Sheddy Barglan← R. Mulders

76'

H. Acheffay← M. Bakaľa

76'

T. van Grunsven← D. Gravenberch

80'

Sheddy Barglan

86'

V. Kotzebue← T. van Leeuwen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DenADO

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots16

3Corners10

18Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots16

5On Target4

3Off Target5

1Blocked7

7Inside Box7

2Outside Box9

Passing

45%Possession55%

329Total Passes404

231Accurate Passes282

70%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2