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ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch — Eerste Divisie 2018

ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Den Bosch
Den Bosch
2/11/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 25Bingoal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

ADO Den Haag55%
×Draw22%
Den Bosch23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag
2.00
Den Bosch
1.23

ADO Den Haag creates 63% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 148 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag
2.00
Den Bosch
1.19

allows per match

ADO Den Haag
1.28
Den Bosch
2.01

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par
Den Bosch+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

Den Bosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw
77%
ADO Den Haag or Den Bosch
78%
Draw or Den Bosch
45%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
32%
Den Bosch wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
86%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
59%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
32%
Den Bosch 1+ goals
71%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
35%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
70%
Den Bosch (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.01 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 2.00 + Den Bosch defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.00

Den Bosch attack 1.19 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more
55%
level
22%
Den Bosch scores more
23%

ADO Den Haag at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch

ADO Den Haag beat Den Bosch 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Bingoal Stadion in ‘s-Gravenhage.