Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm — Allsvenskan 2018

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
8/24/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 21Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Degerfors IF32%
×Draw26%
AIK Stockholm41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.18
AIK Stockholm
1.38

AIK Stockholm creates 17% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 127 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.06
AIK Stockholm
1.28

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.48
AIK Stockholm
1.29

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
59%
Degerfors IF or AIK Stockholm
74%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
68%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
13%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
69%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
33%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
12%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
75%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
40%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
44%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.06 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

AIK Stockholm attack 1.28 + Degerfors IF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
32%
level
26%
AIK Stockholm scores more
41%

AIK Stockholm at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Degerfors IF 0–1 AIK Stockholm

AIK Stockholm beat Degerfors IF 1-0 in Allsvenskan on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.