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AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2018

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
7/13/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 15Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

AIK Stockholm57%
×Draw23%
Degerfors IF20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.79
Degerfors IF
0.94

AIK Stockholm creates 90% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 65 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
1.53
Degerfors IF
1.08

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
0.80
Degerfors IF
2.06

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
80%
AIK Stockholm or Degerfors IF
77%
Draw or Degerfors IF
43%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
33%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
83%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
53%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
26%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
61%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
24%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
75%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 125 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.06 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.53 + Degerfors IF defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

Degerfors IF attack 1.08 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
57%
level
23%
Degerfors IF scores more
20%

AIK Stockholm at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: AIK Stockholm 3–0 Degerfors IF

AIK Stockholm beat Degerfors IF 3-0 in Allsvenskan on July 13, 2025.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.