AIK Stockholm 1–1 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Degerfors IF

2/14/2025

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AIK Stockholm43%

×Draw22%

Degerfors IF34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.64

AIK Stockholm

1.86

Degerfors IF

1.64

AIK Stockholm creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

2.08

creates per match

2.59

0.69

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

2.08

Degerfors IF

2.59

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

0.69

Degerfors IF

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

66%

AIK Stockholm or Degerfors IF

78%

Draw or Degerfors IF

57%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

23%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

84%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

55%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

28%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

81%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

49%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

56%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 2.08 + Degerfors IF defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.86

Degerfors IF attack 2.59 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

43%

level

22%

Degerfors IF scores more

34%

AIK Stockholm at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff