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Defensa Y Justicia vs Barracas Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Defensa Y Justicia
Defensa Y Justicia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Barracas Central
Barracas Central
J. B. Miritello 37'
R. Insua 90' (pen)
2/15/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 6Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia42%
×Draw28%
Barracas Central30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensa Y Justicia
1.27
Barracas Central
1.02

Defensa Y Justicia creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia
1.09
Barracas Central
0.81

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia
1.23
Barracas Central
1.44

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia-0.20scores less
Barracas Central-0.02on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Barracas Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw
70%
Defensa Y Justicia or Barracas Central
72%
Draw or Barracas Central
58%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+
19%
Barracas Central wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals
72%
Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals
36%
Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals
14%
Barracas Central 1+ goals
64%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
27%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)
59%
Barracas Central (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.44 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.09 + Barracas Central defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Barracas Central attack 0.81 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more
42%
level
28%
Barracas Central scores more
30%

Defensa Y Justicia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. B. MiritelloDefensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia · F
7.9

Match Events

20'
F. Bruera← J. Ruiz
37'
J. B. Miritello
46'
F. Mater← M. Duarte
46'
N. Barrios← N. Capraro
58'
F. Gonzalez← M. Miranda
60'
Iván Tapia
60'
S. Rosane← I. Tapia
63'
Rodrigo Insúa
64'
Facundo Mater
66'
B. Schamine← C. Perez
66'
N. Palavecino← M. Ramirez
72'
G. Morales← D. Miloc
82'
G. Gonzalez← J. B. Miritello
83'
M. Gonzalez← D. Barbona
90+6'
Francisco González
90'
Enrique Bologna
90+5'
Gonzalo Javier MoralesPenalty confirmed
90'
R. InsuaPenalty

Possession

61%Defensa

Shots

12Defensa

Pass accuracy

52%Defensa

Statistics

DefensaBarracas
Overview
61%Possession39%
12Total Shots10
6Corners2
12Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots10
6On Target4
5Off Target6
1Blocked0
9Inside Box7
3Outside Box3
Passing
61%Possession39%
477Total Passes291
397Accurate Passes221
83%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls8
2Yellow Cards3
6Offsides3

Match Recap: Defensa Y Justicia vs Barracas Central

Defensa Y Justicia and Barracas Central drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 15, 2025.

Goals: J. B. Miritello (37'), R. Insua (90' pen).

Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello in Gobernador Julio A. Costa.