Barracas Central 1–1 Defensa Y Justicia

Barracas Central

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Defensa Y Justicia

I. Tapia 90'

J. B. Miritello 60'

8/22/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 6Claudio Fabian Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Barracas Central37%

×Draw27%

Defensa Y Justicia36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barracas CentralExpected goals in this matchDefensa Y Justicia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.21

Barracas Central

1.23

Defensa Y Justicia

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

0.98

creates per match

1.20

1.22

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Barracas Central

0.98

Defensa Y Justicia

1.20

allows per match

Barracas Central

1.22

Defensa Y Justicia

1.49

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Barracas Central-0.26scores less

Defensa Y Justicia-0.43scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barracas Central ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barracas Central or draw

64%

Barracas Central or Defensa Y Justicia

73%

Draw or Defensa Y Justicia

63%

Winning margin

Barracas Central wins by 2+

16%

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Barracas Central 1+ goals

71%

Barracas Central 2+ goals

35%

Barracas Central 3+ goals

13%

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

70%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

34%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barracas Central (draw refunded)

51%

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barracas Central at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barracas Central attack 0.98 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.23

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + Barracas Central defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barracas Central scores more

37%

level

27%

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

36%

Barracas Central at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barracas Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

M. Ledesma

Barracas Central · G

8.3

Match Events

20'

S. Rosane← G. Morales

60'

J. B. Miritello↳ A. Osorio

70'

70'

70'

73'

74'

87'

J. Gutierrez← A. Osorio

90+3'

D. Barbona← J. B. Miritello

90'

I. Tapia↳ K. Jappert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarracasDefensa

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots15

0.45Expected Goals (xG)1.41

3Corners3

13Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots15

4On Target7

3Off Target6

2Blocked2

4Inside Box5

5Outside Box10

Passing

37%Possession63%

324Total Passes571

244Accurate Passes479

75%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

-0.21Goals Prevented-0.21

Discipline

13Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides4