Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Barracas Central

Defensa Y Justicia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barracas Central

G. Goñi 23' (OG)

8/31/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia42%

×Draw28%

Barracas Central30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensa Y JusticiaExpected goals in this matchBarracas Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Defensa Y Justicia

1.27

Barracas Central

1.02

Defensa Y Justicia creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.09

creates per match

0.81

1.23

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.09

Barracas Central

0.81

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.23

Barracas Central

1.44

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia-0.20scores less

Barracas Central-0.02on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Barracas Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw

70%

Defensa Y Justicia or Barracas Central

72%

Draw or Barracas Central

58%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

19%

Barracas Central wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

72%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

36%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

14%

Barracas Central 1+ goals

64%

Barracas Central 2+ goals

27%

Barracas Central 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

59%

Barracas Central (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.44 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.09 + Barracas Central defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Barracas Central attack 0.81 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

42%

level

28%

Barracas Central scores more

30%

Defensa Y Justicia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

E. Aguilera

Defensa Y Justicia · D

7.7

Match Events

16'

Alexis Soto

23'

G. GoñiOwn goal

43'

Maximiliano González

46'

A. Portillo← G. Alanís

52'

Jhonatan Candia

62'

S. Coronel← M. Zalazar

62'

A. Cantero← S. Rosané

67'

L. Brochero← D. Pavia

69'

M. Sosa← L. Herrera

80'

Nicolas Palavecino

83'

B. Schamine← N. Palavecino

84'

F. Aguirre← M. Iacobellis

89'

T. Ferreyra← J. Miritello

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DefensaBarracas

Overview

41%Possession59%

7Total Shots13

0.31Expected Goals (xG)0.83

2Corners3

17Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots13

2On Target1

4Off Target9

1Blocked3

3Inside Box6

4Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

242Total Passes337

122Accurate Passes197

50%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.25Goals Prevented-0.25

Discipline

17Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0