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Damac vs Al-Fateh — Pro League 2025

Damac
Damac
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh
M. Saadane 63' (OG)
S. Bendebka 47'
10/30/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 7Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Damac44%
×Draw27%
Al-Fateh30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damac
1.40
Al-Fateh
1.11

Damac creates 26% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Damac
1.16
Al-Fateh
0.90

allows per match

Damac
1.32
Al-Fateh
1.65

finishing

Damac+0.00on par
Al-Fateh+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damac ↓

Al-Fateh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Damac or draw
70%
Damac or Al-Fateh
73%
Draw or Al-Fateh
56%

Winning margin

Damac wins by 2+
21%
Al-Fateh wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Damac 1+ goals
75%
Damac 2+ goals
41%
Damac 3+ goals
17%
Al-Fateh 1+ goals
67%
Al-Fateh 2+ goals
30%
Al-Fateh 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Damac (draw refunded)
59%
Al-Fateh (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damac at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Al-Fateh away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damac attack 1.16 + Al-Fateh defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Al-Fateh attack 0.90 + Damac defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Damac scores more
44%
level
27%
Al-Fateh scores more
30%

Damac at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Damac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
KewinDamacDamac · G
7.9

Match Events

3'
Valentín Vada
19'
Dhari Al-Enezi
45+1'
Marwane Saadane
47'
S. Bendebka↳ M. Batna
48'
Sofiane BendebkaGoal confirmed
63'
M. SaadaneOwn goal
65'
H. Al Ghamdi← Y. Naji
71'
F. Al Zubaidi← A. Al Anazi
73'
S. Al Hawsawi← A. R. Al Khaibre
81'
A. Al Obaid← David Kaiki
86'
S. Al Sharfa← S. Bendebka
90+2'
Bin Mahmoud← S. Baattia

Possession

50%Damac

Shots

9Damac

Pass accuracy

51%Damac

Statistics

DamacAl-Fateh
Overview
50%Possession50%
9Total Shots12
0.66Expected Goals (xG)1.49
3Corners5
13Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots12
3On Target5
4Off Target2
2Blocked5
4Inside Box8
5Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
301Total Passes299
231Accurate Passes224
77%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Damac 1 – 1 Al-Fateh

Damac and Al-Fateh drew 1-1 in Pro League on October 30, 2025.

Goals: S. Bendebka (47'), M. Saadane (63' o.g.).

Damac controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Abha.