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Damac vs Al-Fateh — Pro League 2025

Damac
Damac
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh
M. Batna 63'
5/22/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 33Dhamak Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Damac44%
×Draw26%
Al-Fateh29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damac
1.42
Al-Fateh
1.10

Damac creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

creates per match

Damac
1.18
Al-Fateh
0.90

allows per match

Damac
1.30
Al-Fateh
1.65

finishing

Damac+0.00on par
Al-Fateh+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damac ↓

Al-Fateh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Damac or draw
71%
Damac or Al-Fateh
74%
Draw or Al-Fateh
56%

Winning margin

Damac wins by 2+
21%
Al-Fateh wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Damac 1+ goals
76%
Damac 2+ goals
41%
Damac 3+ goals
17%
Al-Fateh 1+ goals
67%
Al-Fateh 2+ goals
30%
Al-Fateh 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Damac (draw refunded)
60%
Al-Fateh (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damac at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

Al-Fateh away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damac attack 1.18 + Al-Fateh defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Al-Fateh attack 0.90 + Damac defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Damac scores more
44%
level
26%
Al-Fateh scores more
29%

Damac at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Damac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. BatnaAl-FatehAl-Fateh · M
8.3

Match Events

23'
Tarek Hamed
45+3'
Dhari Al-Enezi
45+2'
Faisal Al-Sibyani
51'
Dhari Al-Enezi
51'
Dhari Al-Enezi
54'
Abdulrahman Al Obaid← F. Kamano
63'
M. Batna↳ A. Sbaï
69'
Noor Al Rashidi← Faisal Al Subiani
69'
Ahmed Harisi← Hazzaa Ahmed Al Ghamdi
75'
Zaydou Youssouf
77'
Meshari Fahad Al-NemerPenalty cancelled
81'
Hussain Qasim← Hussain Al Zarie
82'
Saeed Baattia← Ahmed Al Julaydan
82'
Ammar Al Dohaim← Djaniny
90+2'
Mohammed Al Khaibari← A. Bedrane
90+2'
Abdullah Al Mogren← Tarek Hamed
90+7'
Saad Al Sharfa← M. Vargas
90'
Ali Al Masoud← A. Sbaï

Possession

45%Damac

Shots

13Damac

Pass accuracy

48%Damac

Statistics

DamacAl-Fateh
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots13
5Corners4
12Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots13
4On Target6
8Off Target3
1Blocked4
8Inside Box9
5Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
285Total Passes350
220Accurate Passes296
77%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls10
4Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Damac 0 – 1 Al-Fateh

Al-Fateh beat Damac 1-0 in Pro League on May 22, 2025.

Goals: M. Batna (63').

Al-Fateh controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Dhamak Club Stadium in Khamis Mushait.