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Al-Fateh vs Damac — Pro League 2025

Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Damac
Damac
S. Bendebka 52'
G. Nkoudou 65'
2/23/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 21Al Fateh Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Al-Fateh48%
×Draw24%
Damac28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Fateh
1.64
Damac
1.20

Al-Fateh creates 37% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al-Fateh
1.50
Damac
0.89

allows per match

Al-Fateh
1.50
Damac
1.78

finishing

Al-Fateh+0.00on par
Damac+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fateh ↓

Damac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Fateh or draw
72%
Al-Fateh or Damac
76%
Draw or Damac
52%

Winning margin

Al-Fateh wins by 2+
25%
Damac wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al-Fateh 1+ goals
81%
Al-Fateh 2+ goals
49%
Al-Fateh 3+ goals
23%
Damac 1+ goals
70%
Damac 2+ goals
34%
Damac 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al-Fateh (draw refunded)
63%
Damac (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fateh at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

Damac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fateh attack 1.50 + Damac defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Damac attack 0.89 + Al-Fateh defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al-Fateh scores more
48%
level
24%
Damac scores more
28%

Al-Fateh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al-Fateh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
G. NkoudouDamacDamac · F
7.9

Match Events

52'
S. Bendebka
53'
Abdulaziz Al Bishi← Ahmed Al Zain
64'
Sofiane Bendebka
65'
G. Nkoudou↳ Tarek Hamed
75'
Abdullah Al Qahtani← Abdulaziz Al Shahrani
78'
Lucas Zelarayán
80'
Georges-Kévin N'KoudouGoal cancelled
83'
Mohammed Al Fuhaid← S. Bendebka
88'
Tawfiq Bu Haymid← Salem Al Najdi

Possession

45%Al-Fateh

Shots

12Al-Fateh

Pass accuracy

50%Al-Fateh

Statistics

Al-FatehDamac
Overview
45%Possession55%
12Total Shots14
9Corners7
14Fouls6
Shots
12Total Shots14
4On Target2
3Off Target4
5Blocked8
9Inside Box8
3Outside Box6
Passing
45%Possession55%
372Total Passes464
297Accurate Passes376
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls6
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Pro League: Al-Fateh 1–1 Damac

Al-Fateh and Damac drew 1-1 in Pro League on February 23, 2024.

Goals: S. Bendebka (52'), G. Nkoudou (65').

Damac controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Al-Hasa.