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Da Nang vs Bóng đá Huế — Cup 2019

Da Nang
Da Nang
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
11/25/2023CupCup · 1st RoundSân Vận Động Hòa Xuân

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Da Nang58%
×Draw30%
Bóng đá Huế12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Da Nang
1.25
Bóng đá Huế
0.41

Da Nang creates 205% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Da Nang
1.17
Bóng đá Huế
0.00

allows per match

Da Nang
0.83
Bóng đá Huế
1.33

finishing

Da Nang+0.00on par
Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Da Nang ↓

Bóng đá Huế →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Da Nang or draw
88%
Da Nang or Bóng đá Huế
70%
Draw or Bóng đá Huế
42%

Winning margin

Da Nang wins by 2+
27%
Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Da Nang 1+ goals
71%
Da Nang 2+ goals
36%
Da Nang 3+ goals
13%
Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
34%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
6%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Da Nang (draw refunded)
83%
Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Da Nang at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Bóng đá Huế away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Da Nang attack 1.17 + Bóng đá Huế defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.00 + Da Nang defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Da Nang scores more
58%
level
30%
Bóng đá Huế scores more
12%

Da Nang at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Da Nang vs Bóng đá Huế

Da Nang beat Bóng đá Huế 2-0 in Cup on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân in Da Nang.