Bóng đá Huế 0–1 Da Nang: Result & Stats | Cup

Bóng đá Huế

0 – 1

Da Nang

Ha Duc Chinh 67' (pen)

5/24/2020

Cup · 1st RoundSân vận động Tự Do

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bóng đá Huế7%

×Draw20%

Da Nang73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bóng đá HuếExpected goals in this matchDa Nang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.41

1.88

Bóng đá Huế

0.41

Da Nang

1.88

Da Nang creates 359% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

0.00

creates per match

1.00

2.75

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Bóng đá Huế

0.00

Da Nang

1.00

allows per match

Bóng đá Huế

2.75

Da Nang

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Da Nang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bóng đá Huế ↓

Da Nang →

0–010%

0–119%

0–218%

0–311%

0–45%

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bóng đá Huế or draw

27%

Bóng đá Huế or Da Nang

80%

Draw or Da Nang

93%

Winning margin

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+

Da Nang wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals

34%

Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals

Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals

Da Nang 1+ goals

85%

Da Nang 2+ goals

56%

Da Nang 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)

Da Nang (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bóng đá Huế at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Da Nang away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.00 + Da Nang defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.41

Da Nang attack 1.00 + Bóng đá Huế defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Bóng đá Huế scores more

level

20%

Da Nang scores more

73%

Da Nang at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

Ha Duc ChinhPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff