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Cyprus vs Bulgaria — Friendlies 2026

Cyprus
Cyprus
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
S. Delev 71'
K. Despodov 24'
11/16/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1AEK Arena - George Karapatakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cyprus34%
×Draw28%
Bulgaria38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cyprus
1.14
Bulgaria
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cyprus
0.88
Bulgaria
0.80

allows per match

Cyprus
1.63
Bulgaria
1.40

finishing

Cyprus+0.00on par
Bulgaria+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus ↓

Bulgaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cyprus or draw
62%
Cyprus or Bulgaria
72%
Draw or Bulgaria
66%

Winning margin

Cyprus wins by 2+
14%
Bulgaria wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cyprus 1+ goals
68%
Cyprus 2+ goals
32%
Cyprus 3+ goals
11%
Bulgaria 1+ goals
70%
Bulgaria 2+ goals
34%
Bulgaria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cyprus (draw refunded)
48%
Bulgaria (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Bulgaria away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus attack 0.88 + Bulgaria defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bulgaria attack 0.80 + Cyprus defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cyprus scores more
34%
level
28%
Bulgaria scores more
38%

Bulgaria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bulgaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
K. Despodov↳ S. Delev
46'
M. Antoniou← M. Antoniades
46'
M. Ioannou← C. Kyriakou
46'
D. Spoljaric← S. Andreou
46'
C. Wheeler← L. Loizou
46'
Y. Karabelyov← I. Gruev
46'
F. Krastev← N. Iliev
48'
Y. Karabelyov
62'
D. Velkovski← M. Petkov
63'
I. Turitsov← Y. Stoyanov
65'
D. Christofi← A. Kakoullis
66'
D. Velkovski
69'
V. Antov← A. Nedyalkov
71'
S. Delev↳ K. Despodov
78'
G. Efrem← I. Pittas
82'
G. Rusev← I. Iliev
88'
C. Sielis

Possession

47%Cyprus

Shots

3Cyprus

Statistics

CyprusBulgaria
Overview
47%Possession53%
3Total Shots9
2Corners8
13Fouls19
Shots
3Total Shots9
1On Target6
1Off Target1
1Blocked2
Passing
47%Possession53%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls19
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Friendlies: Cyprus 0–2 Bulgaria

Bulgaria beat Cyprus 2-0 in Friendlies on November 16, 2022.

Goals: K. Despodov (24'), S. Delev (71').

Bulgaria controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 3.

The match was played at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis in Larnaca.