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Cyprus vs Bulgaria — UEFA Nations League 2018

Cyprus
Cyprus
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
11/16/2018UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 5Neo GSP (Nicosía (Levkosía))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cyprus36%
×Draw32%
Bulgaria32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cyprus
1.00
Bulgaria
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cyprus
0.91
Bulgaria
0.58

allows per match

Cyprus
1.27
Bulgaria
1.08

finishing

Cyprus+0.00on par
Bulgaria+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus ↓

Bulgaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cyprus or draw
68%
Cyprus or Bulgaria
68%
Draw or Bulgaria
64%

Winning margin

Cyprus wins by 2+
14%
Bulgaria wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cyprus 1+ goals
63%
Cyprus 2+ goals
26%
Cyprus 3+ goals
8%
Bulgaria 1+ goals
61%
Bulgaria 2+ goals
24%
Bulgaria 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cyprus (draw refunded)
53%
Bulgaria (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Bulgaria away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus attack 0.91 + Bulgaria defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Bulgaria attack 0.58 + Cyprus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Cyprus scores more
36%
level
32%
Bulgaria scores more
32%

Cyprus at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cyprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cyprus vs Bulgaria

Cyprus and Bulgaria drew 1-1 in UEFA Nations League on November 16, 2018.

The match was played at Neo GSP (Nicosía (Levkosía)).