Bulgaria 2–1 Cyprus: Result & Stats

Bulgaria

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cyprus

10/13/2018

UEFA Nations League · League C - 3Vasil Levski National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bulgaria58%

×Draw23%

Cyprus18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BulgariaExpected goals in this matchCyprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.85

Bulgaria

1.74

Cyprus

0.85

Bulgaria creates 105% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.33

creates per match

0.54

1.17

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Bulgaria

1.33

Cyprus

0.54

allows per match

Bulgaria

1.17

Cyprus

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulgaria+0.00on par

Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria ↓

Cyprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bulgaria or draw

82%

Bulgaria or Cyprus

77%

Draw or Cyprus

42%

Winning margin

Bulgaria wins by 2+

33%

Cyprus wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bulgaria 1+ goals

82%

Bulgaria 2+ goals

52%

Bulgaria 3+ goals

25%

Cyprus 1+ goals

57%

Cyprus 2+ goals

21%

Cyprus 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria (draw refunded)

76%

Cyprus (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Cyprus away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria attack 1.33 + Cyprus defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Cyprus attack 0.54 + Bulgaria defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bulgaria scores more

58%

level

23%

Cyprus scores more

18%

Bulgaria at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bulgaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff