Cusco 3–1 Comerciantes Unidos: Result & Stats

Cusco

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Comerciantes Unidos

G. Carabajal 90'

I. Colman 58'

F. Callejo 21'

J. Olivares 6'

2/22/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cusco57%

×Draw24%

Comerciantes Unidos19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuscoExpected goals in this matchComerciantes Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.84

Cusco

1.65

Comerciantes Unidos

0.84

Cusco creates 96% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.48

creates per match

0.96

0.72

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Cusco

1.48

Comerciantes Unidos

0.96

allows per match

Cusco

0.72

Comerciantes Unidos

1.81

+0.65scores more than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Cusco+0.65scores more

Comerciantes Unidos+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cusco or draw

81%

Cusco or Comerciantes Unidos

76%

Draw or Comerciantes Unidos

43%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+

31%

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals

81%

Cusco 2+ goals

49%

Cusco 3+ goals

23%

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

57%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

21%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)

75%

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.72 · 8 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.81 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.48 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.65

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Cusco defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cusco scores more

57%

level

24%

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

19%

Cusco at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

G. Carabajal

Cusco · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

J. Olivares

12'

Matias Sen

16'

Facundo CallejoMissed penalty

21'

F. Callejo↳ L. Colitto

32'

Iván Colman

36'

Josuee Herrera

55'

Y. Vilchez← F. Alcedo

56'

O. Pinto← J. Herrera

57'

Matías Córdova

58'

Iván ColmanMissed penalty

58'

I. Colman

60'

M. P. Carpio Ferro← J. Olivares

65'

N. Silva← J. Manzaneda

71'

Diego Soto

73'

Yordi VílchezPenalty cancelled

74'

Agustin Rodriguez

80'

C. Diez← D. Soto

88'

E. M. Perez Azambuya← A. Rodriguez

89'

G. Carabajal← L. Colitto

90'

Carlos Diez

90'

J. Tevez← F. Callejo

90'

G. Carabajal↳ M. Ruidias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuscoComerciantes

Overview

64%Possession36%

19Total Shots9

2Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots9

5On Target6

10Off Target2

4Blocked1

14Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

421Total Passes238

365Accurate Passes178

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0