Comerciantes Unidos 0–1 Cusco: Result & Stats

Comerciantes Unidos

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cusco

N. Silva 27'

4/8/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Municipal Germán Contreras Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos34%

×Draw25%

Cusco40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comerciantes UnidosExpected goals in this matchCusco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.46

Comerciantes Unidos

1.32

Cusco

1.46

Cusco creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

0.96

creates per match

1.60

1.31

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos

0.96

Cusco

1.60

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.31

Cusco

1.69

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos-0.04on par

Cusco+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Cusco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw

60%

Comerciantes Unidos or Cusco

75%

Draw or Cusco

66%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

15%

Cusco wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

73%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

38%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

15%

Cusco 1+ goals

77%

Cusco 2+ goals

43%

Cusco 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

46%

Cusco (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.69 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Cusco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cusco attack 1.60 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

34%

level

25%

Cusco scores more

40%

Cusco at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

N. Silva

Cusco · M

7.5

Match Events

12'

Alan Perez

27'

N. Silva↳ L. Colitto

56'

José Zevallos

57'

D. Caro← O. Pinto

57'

K. Paico← E. Páucar

60'

Andy Vidal

60'

M. Aucca← J. Zevallos

66'

Kenji Barrios

67'

K. Santamaría← K. Barrios

72'

Cristian González

76'

Lucas Colitto

80'

P. Cárdenas← A. Vásquez

80'

L. Ramos← J. Tévez

81'

Erick Noriega

86'

Miguel AuccaGoal cancelled

86'

M. Sen← E. Noriega

86'

R. Salinas← P. Magallanes

90+3'

F. Schmidt← N. Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ComerciantesCusco

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots9

9Corners5

8Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots9

0On Target4

4Off Target3

3Blocked2

2Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

272Total Passes366

208Accurate Passes302

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Cusco

Cusco beat Comerciantes Unidos 1-0 in Primera División on April 8, 2024.

Goals: N. Silva (27').

Cusco controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Germán Contreras Jara in Cajabamba.

Comerciantes Unidos vs Cusco — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Cusco