Comerciantes Unidos 1–2 Cusco: Result & Stats

Comerciantes Unidos

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cusco

R. Sandoval 66'

F. Callejo 90', 45' (pen)

5/24/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 14Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos34%

×Draw25%

Cusco40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comerciantes UnidosExpected goals in this matchCusco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.46

Comerciantes Unidos

1.32

Cusco

1.46

Cusco creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

0.96

creates per match

1.60

1.31

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos

0.96

Cusco

1.60

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.31

Cusco

1.69

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos-0.04on par

Cusco+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Cusco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw

60%

Comerciantes Unidos or Cusco

75%

Draw or Cusco

66%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

15%

Cusco wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

73%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

38%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

15%

Cusco 1+ goals

77%

Cusco 2+ goals

43%

Cusco 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

46%

Cusco (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.69 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Cusco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cusco attack 1.60 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

34%

level

25%

Cusco scores more

40%

Cusco at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Callejo

Cusco · F

8.3

Match Events

43'

Carlos DiezPenalty confirmed

45'

F. CallejoPenalty

52'

L. Garcia← S. Gonzales

57'

J. Aquino← I. Colman

63'

Marlon Ruidías

66'

H. Campos← K. Paico

66'

A. Lecaros← F. Duclos

66'

R. Sandoval↳ H. Campos

72'

José Marina

73'

J. Zevallos← M. Ruidias

75'

J. Vega← J. Marina

75'

J. Parodi← G. Paredes

77'

Oswaldo Valenzuela

85'

Marco Saravia

86'

J. Tevez← P. Da Silva

88'

Matias Sen

90+7'

Alexander LecarosPenalty cancelled

90+11'

Juan Tévez

90+4'

Facundo Callejo

90'

F. Callejo↳ A. Ampuero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ComerciantesCusco

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots9

1.09Expected Goals (xG)1.64

4Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots9

1On Target3

5Off Target4

2Blocked2

6Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

283Total Passes468

212Accurate Passes410

75%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Cusco

Cusco beat Comerciantes Unidos 2-1 in Primera División on May 24, 2025.

Goals: F. Callejo (45' pen, 90'), R. Sandoval (66').

Cusco controlled possession (62%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in Cutervo.

Comerciantes Unidos vs Cusco — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Cusco