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Cusco vs Cienciano — Primera División 2026

Cusco
Cusco
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cienciano
Cienciano
6/14/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cusco48%
×Draw27%
Cienciano25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cusco
1.45
Cienciano
0.97

Cusco creates 49% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cusco
1.48
Cienciano
1.23

allows per match

Cusco
0.72
Cienciano
1.42

finishing

Cusco+0.65scores more
Cienciano+0.02on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Cienciano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cusco or draw
75%
Cusco or Cienciano
73%
Draw or Cienciano
52%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+
24%
Cienciano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals
77%
Cusco 2+ goals
42%
Cusco 3+ goals
18%
Cienciano 1+ goals
62%
Cienciano 2+ goals
25%
Cienciano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)
66%
Cienciano (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.72 · 8 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.48 + Cienciano defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cienciano attack 1.23 + Cusco defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cusco scores more
48%
level
27%
Cienciano scores more
25%

Cusco at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
P. DiazCuscoCusco · G
9.2

Match Events

12'
Alexi Edwin Gómez
27'
Alvaro Ampuero
59'
D. La Torre← A. Gomez
59'
C. Neira← L. E. Benites Vargas
72'
J. Zevallos← C. Diez
72'
B. Da Silva← G. Gentile
75'
S. Galvez← N. Silva
87'
J. Aquino← L. Colitto
87'
J. Tevez← F. Callejo
87'
J. Ortiz← A. Gonzalez
88'
A. Ascues← O. Noronha
90+4'
Julián Aquino
90'
Adrián Ascues

Possession

52%Cusco

Shots

15Cusco

Pass accuracy

49%Cusco

Statistics

CuscoCienciano
Overview
52%Possession48%
15Total Shots22
1.51Expected Goals (xG)1.62
4Corners6
5Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots22
4On Target9
9Off Target10
2Blocked3
10Inside Box8
5Outside Box14
Passing
52%Possession48%
348Total Passes319
286Accurate Passes267
82%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
9Saves4
Discipline
5Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides4

Match Recap: Cusco vs Cienciano

Cusco and Cienciano drew 0-0 in Primera División on June 14, 2025.

Cusco controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 22.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.