Cienciano 1–2 Cusco: Result & Stats

Cienciano

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Cusco

A. Hohberg 71'

J. Tevez 43', 37'

10/18/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cienciano51%

×Draw23%

Cusco26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiencianoExpected goals in this matchCusco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.23

Cienciano

1.82

Cusco

1.23

Cienciano creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.95

creates per match

1.60

0.86

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Cienciano

1.95

Cusco

1.60

allows per match

Cienciano

0.86

Cusco

1.69

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Cienciano-0.03on par

Cusco+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Cusco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw

74%

Cienciano or Cusco

77%

Draw or Cusco

49%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+

28%

Cusco wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals

84%

Cienciano 2+ goals

54%

Cienciano 3+ goals

27%

Cusco 1+ goals

71%

Cusco 2+ goals

35%

Cusco 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)

66%

Cusco (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.86 · 12 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.69 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.95 + Cusco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.82

Cusco attack 1.60 + Cienciano defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cienciano scores more

51%

level

23%

Cusco scores more

26%

Cienciano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Colman

Cusco · M

8.5

Match Events

20'

28'

29'

37'

43'

53'

53'

57'

63'

65'

66'

70'

L. E. Benites Vargas← C. Souza Espana

70'

C. Neira← L. Galeano

70'

A. Custodio← J. Tevez

70'

M. Aucca← L. Colitto

71'

A. Hohberg

81'

P. Da Silva← I. Colman

83'

O. Noronha← C. Torrejon

83'

A. Ramua← A. Gonzalez

83'

R. Sandoval← B. Da Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CiencianoCusco

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots7

4Corners3

15Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots7

7On Target3

4Off Target3

4Blocked1

8Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

448Total Passes333

394Accurate Passes274

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls7

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

0Offsides4

Primera División: Cienciano 1–2 Cusco

Cusco beat Cienciano 2-1 in Primera División on October 18, 2025.

Goals: J. Tevez (37', 43'), A. Hohberg (71').

Cienciano controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.

Cienciano vs Cusco — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Cienciano 1–2 Cusco