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Cienciano vs Cusco — Primera División 2026

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Cusco
Cusco
G. Mera 32'
L. Ramos 45', 42' (pen)
9/28/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cienciano51%
×Draw23%
Cusco26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
1.82
Cusco
1.23

Cienciano creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cienciano
1.95
Cusco
1.60

allows per match

Cienciano
0.86
Cusco
1.69

finishing

Cienciano-0.03on par
Cusco+0.40scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Cusco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
74%
Cienciano or Cusco
77%
Draw or Cusco
49%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
28%
Cusco wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
84%
Cienciano 2+ goals
54%
Cienciano 3+ goals
27%
Cusco 1+ goals
71%
Cusco 2+ goals
35%
Cusco 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
66%
Cusco (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.86 · 12 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.69 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.95 + Cusco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.82

Cusco attack 1.60 + Cienciano defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cienciano scores more
51%
level
23%
Cusco scores more
26%

Cienciano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
L. RamosCuscoCusco · F
8.2

Match Events

32'
Didier La Torre
32'
G. Mera↳ M. Benítez
39'
Nicolás SilvaPenalty confirmed
42'
R. Fernández← N. Silva
42'
L. RamosPenalty
45'
L. Ramos↳ I. Colman
55'
C. Cueva← D. La Torre
68'
A. Rodríguez← G. Ritacco
73'
Jonathan Bilbao
77'
J. Guivin← A. Ramúa
77'
P. Cárdenas← R. Fernández
77'
R. Ramírez← J. Bilbao
77'
J. Tévez← L. Ramos
84'
Ruben Ramirez
90+1'
A. Tamariz← J. Zevallos

Possession

65%Cienciano

Shots

9Cienciano

Pass accuracy

53%Cienciano

Statistics

CiencianoCusco
Overview
65%Possession35%
9Total Shots7
4Corners1
9Fouls19
Shots
9Total Shots7
3On Target5
5Off Target2
1Blocked0
2Inside Box5
7Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
444Total Passes253
382Accurate Passes191
86%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls19
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Primera División: Cienciano 1–2 Cusco

Cusco beat Cienciano 2-1 in Primera División on September 28, 2024.

Goals: G. Mera (32'), L. Ramos (42' pen, 45').

Cienciano controlled possession (65%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.