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Cultural Leonesa vs Barakaldo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Barakaldo
Barakaldo
5/10/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cultural Leonesa44%
×Draw28%
Barakaldo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.32
Barakaldo
1.00

Cultural Leonesa creates 32% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.41
Barakaldo
1.08

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.91
Barakaldo
1.24

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Barakaldo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
72%
Cultural Leonesa or Barakaldo
72%
Draw or Barakaldo
56%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
20%
Barakaldo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
73%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
38%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
15%
Barakaldo 1+ goals
63%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
26%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
61%
Barakaldo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Barakaldo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Barakaldo attack 1.08 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
44%
level
28%
Barakaldo scores more
28%

Cultural Leonesa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cultural Leonesa 2–1 Barakaldo

Cultural Leonesa beat Barakaldo 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.