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Cultural Leonesa vs Barakaldo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
CANC
00:00
Barakaldo
Barakaldo
3/15/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cultural Leonesa65%
×Draw21%
Barakaldo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.89
Barakaldo
0.72

Cultural Leonesa creates 163% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.92
Barakaldo
0.82

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.62
Barakaldo
1.86

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Barakaldo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
86%
Cultural Leonesa or Barakaldo
79%
Draw or Barakaldo
35%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
39%
Barakaldo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
85%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
56%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
29%
Barakaldo 1+ goals
51%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
16%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
83%
Barakaldo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.92 + Barakaldo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.89

Barakaldo attack 0.82 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
65%
level
21%
Barakaldo scores more
14%

Cultural Leonesa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cultural Leonesa host Barakaldo

March 15, 2020: Cultural Leonesa take on Barakaldo in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cultural Leonesa host Barakaldo at Estadio Municipal Reino de León.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.