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Barakaldo vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Barakaldo
Barakaldo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
10/27/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Barakaldo35%
×Draw26%
Cultural Leonesa39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barakaldo
1.31
Cultural Leonesa
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

creates per match

Barakaldo
1.29
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

allows per match

Barakaldo
1.46
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw
61%
Barakaldo or Cultural Leonesa
74%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
65%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+
15%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals
73%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
38%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
14%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
75%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
41%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)
47%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 1.29 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.33 + Barakaldo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barakaldo scores more
35%
level
26%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
39%

Cultural Leonesa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Barakaldo 0–0 Cultural Leonesa

Barakaldo and Cultural Leonesa drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre in Barakaldo.