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Cultural Leonesa vs AD Ceuta FC — Segunda División 2018

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
10/25/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Cultural Leonesa37%
×Draw26%
AD Ceuta FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.30
AD Ceuta FC
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.71
AD Ceuta FC
1.10

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.52
AD Ceuta FC
1.90

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
63%
Cultural Leonesa or AD Ceuta FC
74%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
63%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
16%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
73%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
37%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
14%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
73%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
38%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
50%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 0.71 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.30

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.10 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
37%
level
26%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
37%

Cultural Leonesa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Cultural Leonesa 0–1 AD Ceuta FC

AD Ceuta FC beat Cultural Leonesa 1-0 in Segunda División on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.