AD Ceuta FC 3–1 Cultural Leonesa: Result & Stats

AD Ceuta FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cultural Leonesa

1/26/2026

Segunda División · Round 23Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

AD Ceuta FC47%

×Draw25%

Cultural Leonesa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD Ceuta FCExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.16

AD Ceuta FC

1.56

Cultural Leonesa

1.16

AD Ceuta FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

1.33

creates per match

1.22

1.10

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.33

Cultural Leonesa

1.22

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.10

Cultural Leonesa

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw

72%

AD Ceuta FC or Cultural Leonesa

75%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

53%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

24%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

79%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

46%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

21%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

69%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

32%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

62%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.33 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.22 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more

47%

level

25%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

28%

AD Ceuta FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff