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AD Ceuta FC vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
1/22/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

AD Ceuta FC43%
×Draw25%
Cultural Leonesa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.27

AD Ceuta FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC
1.68
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC
1.37
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw
68%
AD Ceuta FC or Cultural Leonesa
75%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
57%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
21%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
78%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
44%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
19%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
72%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
36%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
57%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.68 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more
43%
level
25%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
32%

AD Ceuta FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Ceuta FC vs Cultural Leonesa

AD Ceuta FC beat Cultural Leonesa 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.