Cuiaba 1–0 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cuiaba

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Coritiba

Alisson Safira 6'

10/12/2025

Serie B · Round 32Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cuiaba50%

×Draw25%

Coritiba25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuiabaExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.06

Cuiaba

1.59

Coritiba

1.06

Cuiaba creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.69

creates per match

1.03

1.09

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cuiaba

1.69

Coritiba

1.03

allows per match

Cuiaba

1.09

Coritiba

1.50

-1.09scores less than expected

finishing

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

Cuiaba-1.09scores less

Coritiba-0.53scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw

75%

Cuiaba or Coritiba

75%

Draw or Coritiba

50%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+

26%

Coritiba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals

80%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

47%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

21%

Coritiba 1+ goals

65%

Coritiba 2+ goals

29%

Coritiba 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

66%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.69 + Coritiba defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Coritiba attack 1.03 + Cuiaba defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cuiaba scores more

50%

level

25%

Coritiba scores more

25%

Cuiaba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Josue

Coritiba · M

8.2

Match Events

6'

Alisson Safira↳ Denilson Alves

10'

28'

38'

45+6'

46'

Filipe Machado← Wallisson

54'

Jader← Juan Christian

54'

Carlos Alberto← Alisson Safira

58'

Alex Silva← Maicon

59'

Dellatorre← Gustavo Coutinho

66'

Nicolas Careca← Clayson

66'

Everaldo← Iury Castilho

71'

Sander← Nathan Pelae

71'

Lucas Mineiro← Denilson Alves

86'

Nino Paraiba← Matheusinho

87'

Bruno Alves

90+7'

Nino Paraíba

90+7'

Alex Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuiabaCoritiba

Overview

39%Possession61%

19Total Shots11

1.85Expected Goals (xG)0.67

2Corners2

18Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots11

4On Target1

9Off Target6

6Blocked4

12Inside Box9

7Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

346Total Passes531

295Accurate Passes459

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls9

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3

Serie B: Cuiaba 1–0 Coritiba

Cuiaba beat Coritiba 1-0 in Serie B on October 12, 2025.

Goals: Alisson Safira (6').

Coritiba controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 19.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá.

Cuiaba vs Coritiba — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cuiaba 1–0 Coritiba