Cuiaba 1–1 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cuiaba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Coritiba

Fernando Sobral 3'

Robson 49'

5/27/2023

Serie A · Round 8Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cuiaba38%

×Draw28%

Coritiba34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuiabaExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.10

Cuiaba

1.19

Coritiba

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

0.87

creates per match

1.13

1.07

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Cuiaba

0.87

Coritiba

1.13

allows per match

Cuiaba

1.07

Coritiba

1.51

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Cuiaba+0.27scores more

Coritiba+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw

66%

Cuiaba or Coritiba

72%

Draw or Coritiba

62%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+

16%

Coritiba wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals

70%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

33%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

12%

Coritiba 1+ goals

67%

Coritiba 2+ goals

30%

Coritiba 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

53%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.07 · 7 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 0.87 + Coritiba defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.19

Coritiba attack 1.13 + Cuiaba defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cuiaba scores more

38%

level

28%

Coritiba scores more

34%

Cuiaba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

Fernando Sobral

Cuiaba · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

Fernando Sobral↳ Jonathan Cafú

29'

Wesley← Kaio César

46'

Victor Luís← Jamerson

49'

Robson↳ Boschilia

58'

Raniele

60'

Iury Castilho← Wellington Silva

63'

Patric Calmon← Rikelme

63'

N. Quagliata← Jonathan Cafú

64'

66'

69'

69'

69'

Matheus Bianqui← Boschilia

71'

Alan Empereur

72'

Bruno Viana

79'

Ruan Assis← Wesley

83'

Ricardo Cerqueira← Raniele

84'

Matheus Bianqui

86'

Patric Calmon

90+5'

Benjamin Kuscevic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuiabaCoritiba

Overview

44%Possession56%

10Total Shots8

0.64Expected Goals (xG)0.96

2Corners6

8Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots8

3On Target2

6Off Target5

1Blocked1

6Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

391Total Passes515

302Accurate Passes424

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls13

3Yellow Cards5

0Offsides3

Serie A: Cuiaba 1–1 Coritiba

Cuiaba and Coritiba drew 1-1 in Serie A on May 27, 2023.

Goals: Fernando Sobral (3'), Robson (49').

Coritiba controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso.

Cuiaba vs Coritiba — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Cuiaba 1–1 Coritiba