Coritiba 0–3 Cuiaba: Result & Stats | Serie A

Coritiba

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cuiaba

Raniele 88'

I. Pitta 82'

Deyverson 24'

10/18/2023

Serie A · Round 27Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Coritiba42%

×Draw29%

Cuiaba29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchCuiaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.94

Coritiba

1.20

Cuiaba

0.94

Coritiba creates 28% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 8 away

1.08

creates per match

0.51

1.38

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Coritiba

1.08

Cuiaba

0.51

allows per match

Coritiba

1.38

Cuiaba

1.31

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Coritiba-0.14scores less

Cuiaba+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Cuiaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

71%

Coritiba or Cuiaba

71%

Draw or Cuiaba

58%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

18%

Cuiaba wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

70%

Coritiba 2+ goals

34%

Coritiba 3+ goals

12%

Cuiaba 1+ goals

61%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

24%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

59%

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.38 · 18 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.31 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.08 + Cuiaba defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Cuiaba attack 0.51 + Coritiba defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Coritiba scores more

42%

level

29%

Cuiaba scores more

29%

Coritiba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Raniele

Cuiaba · M

8.3

Match Events

19'

Alan Empereur

24'

Deyverson↳ Clayson

46'

Garcez← S. Gómez

62'

Jonathan Cafú← Derik Lacerda

64'

Jesé← Robson

67'

Denilson← Fernando Sobral

70'

Jamerson← Victor Luís

74'

Raniele

76'

Edu← Matheus Bianqui

77'

Lucas Barbosa← Natanael

81'

I. Pitta← Clayson

81'

Allyson← Lucas Mineiro

82'

I. Pitta↳ Raniele

88'

Raniele↳ Denilson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaCuiaba

Overview

64%Possession36%

19Total Shots8

1.21Expected Goals (xG)0.41

4Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots8

3On Target6

10Off Target1

6Blocked1

10Inside Box6

9Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

516Total Passes304

419Accurate Passes218

81%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Coritiba vs Cuiaba

Cuiaba beat Coritiba 3-0 in Serie A on October 18, 2023.

Goals: Deyverson (24'), I. Pitta (82'), Raniele (88').

Coritiba controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba, Paraná.

Coritiba vs Cuiaba — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Coritiba vs Cuiaba